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Uncertainty
Uncertainty
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Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
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Facing Uncertainty
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The Humanities in City Planning : Culture, Uncertainty, and Visuality
This book by preeminent planning theorist Martin H.Krieger explores how cities are much more than their economies, demographies, or geographies.Planning today is dominated by social science, but Kreiger takes a different approach, thinking of city planning in terms of Culture, Uncertainty, and Visuality.The chapters explore planners and their role as protagonist in the humanities of literature and history; the inevitability of uncertainty in planning and how to face it; and how to attend to the physical, visual, and aural environment of the city.Through a series of essays, Krieger shows that cities are cultural and meaningful, that they are contingent and so filled with opportunity, and that they are concrete, particular, and encountered.The Humanities in City Planning will be of interest to students and scholars of the humanities and planning looking for alternative ways of viewing the city.
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Adrift : On Fertility, Uncertainty and the Wilderness of the Body
'What would it mean to name this place I'm in, to map it?To say: this is the landscape. It looks like this, smells like this, at night these are the sounds that carry on the wind.Almost-motherhood . . .'When Miranda Ward and her husband decided to have a baby, they were young and optimistic.But five years, three miscarriages and one ectopic pregnancy later, she is still dealing with the ongoing aftermath of that decision, and the shadow it's cast over her relationship to her partner, her body and her future.In this searing, lyrical and radically honest memoir, Ward charts her journey through the uncertain landscape of almost-motherhood, asking questions of geography on the most intimate scale.How can we learn to be at home in our own bodies, even when we feel adrift from them?What language do we have for the spaces in between, the periods of wanting and waiting? And how do we maintain hope as we navigate towards an unknown future?
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Finding Resilience : Change and Uncertainty in Nature and Society
Floods, fires, famines, epidemics and disasters of all kinds are on the increase, and as their frequency rises so does the call for greater resilience.But what does that mean? The word is used differently in psychology, ecology, economics and engineering and runs the risk of becoming meaningless jargon.This would be most unfortunate because, if we are to successfully navigate very real and dangerous global trends, it is resilience that needs to be understood and fostered.Finding Resilience is international in scope and unravels how ecosystems, societies and people cope with disturbance and adversity.Written for a general readership and based on the experiences of researchers, the fascinating stories from around the world reveal what resilience is, how it works in different kinds of systems, how it is expressed, and how it can be gained and lost.
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Age of Uncertainty
MUUY BIIEN's latest offering, "Age Of Uncertainty," is a delightful romp through the murky waters of modern indie rock. From the opening track, the band grabs you by the scruff of your neck and drags you headfirst into their world of swirling guitars and pounding drums. The album exudes a sense of urgency and chaos, as if the band members were trying to cram as many ideas as possible into each song. This frenetic energy is both the album's greatest strength and its biggest weakness. While some tracks, like the relentless "Skeletons" and the haunting "Cyanide Breathmint," benefit from this sense of urgency, others can feel a bit cluttered and overwhelming. Lead vocalist Joshua Evans' gritty, almost manic delivery adds to the album's sense of unease. His lyrics are cryptic and often nonsensical, but they somehow feel perfectly at home amidst the cacophony of sound. "Age Of Uncertainty" is not an album for the faint of heart. It demands your attention and refuses to let go until the final notes of the closing track have faded into silence. MUUY BIIEN may not have all the answers, but they certainly know how to keep you on your toes. In the end, "Age Of Uncertainty" is a wild ride that is sure to leave you both exhausted and exhilarated. So buckle up and enjoy the chaos.
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